A Ukraine reporter says that Russia underestimates the Ukraine resolve to protect their homeland. Russia is close to being full strength to invade by about 30%, as they have what appears to be 140,000 troops, while vehicles seem to be amassing at key attack points near the border of the two countries. Some say with this buildup a Russian-instigated attack is imminent the only question remaining is the timing of the event. One question now looms: if the United States were to give Ukraine the soldiers by releasing the approximately 80,000 United States troops in Europe mostly housed in Germany but it wouldn’t take long if President Biden would give another 50,000 troops and bring in tanks and warthogs into the arena it would be easy to hold off Russia and with 4 aircraft carriers into the arena.
However, one can argue the tactical methods all day long, but the real question is this: How serious is President Vladimir Putin with regard to attacking Ukraine? While leaders make overt gestures in one direction when they actually implement the opposite, I don’t really see President Putin sending up the red balloon on this one. There is too much world pressure against the war, and the United States would probably not end up entering the fray on the simple basis that there is no diplomatic victory for them, no matter which side they promoted. Indeed many Americans can’t even define the problem that exists between Russia and Ukraine, and even Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has been adamant that an attack is not on his radar screen.
To be honest, the best way such an attack can be averted is to show Ukrainian president Zelensky and Russian president Putin arrange a quick summit where both can simultaneously declare that no war is imminent, and that Russian troops are only engaged in war games, the same war games that they’ve been undergoing since they were part of the Soviet Union. But perhaps the biggest indication that war may not be imminent is the fact that taverns on the border are routinely patronized by military members of both countries. If an invasion is most likely to occur, look to the Russians and Ukrainians to ban their troops from patronizing these taverns and restaurants in a possible buildup to war. Call this the Russian/Ukrainian Tavern Metric, if you will.